The American Dream, 1/20/2009

Today, 1/20/2009, America is turning a tremendous page in its history.  Here in the midst of a stunning economic crisis, America is standing up and holding out a symbol of reconciliation to the world in the man that is Barack Obama.  The world had begun to doubt the American dream.  We had allowed that dream, which Dr. King immortalized in his life, to become obscured.  But with the election and now the innauguration of the first African American US President, a man who comports himself with all the dignity and grace that any country could hope for in a president, America is holding up that dream again.  It is not merely an American dream.  It is a dream for all peoples who seek and love freedom.

As Americans, it is our duty uphold that dream.  We have been given much.  From us, much will be required.

May God bless Barack Obama.  And may God bless America.

Google Stock Price Error…Would Have been a Really Bad Day

If you look at Google’s stock price on MarketWatch here at 11:00pm Central, it is showing $322.99.  A loss of $58.01 for the day.  TechCrunch reports that the Nasdaq ticker showed -200.  Clearly, that would have been a really bad day.  Bill Gates may have been mortgaging his Redmond manse to load up on the stock.  Here are a couple of screenshots showing the phantom carnage.

Wow! Dow! -777[updated]…GOOG down 40!

The Dow is taking a royal beating on the news of the House body slamming the bailout in a 228-205 vote against.  Meanwhile, as bailout fever spreads to Europe and its banks, the stock market is digesting what all this really means…something like Global Economic Crisis.

Regardless of whether the bailout ultimately fails or passes, a bailout is like chemotherapy.  You don’t take chemo because you’re feeling a little droopy and you want a little pick-me-up.

$700B Bailout – Winners & Losers

With the $700B bailout of America’s troubled financial institutions being printed at US mints as you read this [updated] (hold the mint press…the House voted it down…more drama to follow), it is time to take a sober look at who the real winners and losers in this deal are.

WINNER – the US economy…sort of.  This helps, but this is not the end of troubles for the US economy.  Picture a man lying in a ditch with gangrene eating both arms and both legs.  This bailout just amputated one leg and cauterized it, hopefully keeping that particular problem from killing him.  There is a lot more that is wrong with this guy than that one leg.  The bailout is helping the banks stay afloat  for a while longer.  Next up…credit cards, then corporate profits, then hyper inflation…then we’ll see what’s what.

LOSER – you, the good ole US taxpayer.  Merry, freakin’ Christmas.  The final tab will not be $700 billion, because hopefully some of the mortgages and loans that the Government buys will actually be paid of in part or full over their lifetimes.  Please do not take this out on your neighbor who was in the mortgage business.  He is probably wondering if he will still be able to buy that house at the beach with the yatch sized davits in causeway out back, or if he’ll have to find a marina slip somewhere to dock the Windfall.

WINNER – mortgage and investment bankers who gave out loans like twizzlers at a kids birthday party.  While many of these people no longer have their high paying jobs, many of these people no longer need them.  A person who earns the US Median gross income, $61,500 for their entire 30 year career will only earn $1.845 million dollars over that 30 year period.  Imagine if you earned that over a 5 year period.  Would you really need to work the other 25 years?  Well, you shouldn’t.  A friend of mine who works for Citi…still…said he saw the mortgage guys bailing around the start of 2008.  These guys weren’t stupid.  They knew what was going on.

LOSER – mortgage and investment bankers who made a mint and believed that the gravy train would roll on forever.  If they blew it as fast as they “made” it, this is one big, ugly, rainy day.  It is really hard to live like an average Joe once you get used to living a few rungs higher on the ladder.  If you ever find yourself making money faster than you can spend it, be careful…something is probably wrong with that picture.

WINNERS - politicians.  The get to look like they are really doing something to save America, if not the whole world (it really is that serious).  Forget the fact that this snafu happened right under their noses.  Forget the fact that they actually encouraged this by requiring mortgage lenders to write a certain amount of risky loans for people who had no business buying a McMansion.  Forget the fact that they didn’t even come up with the bailout idea.  Where would we be without them…

LOSERS – savers….that’s right, if you think that you’ve actually been doing the right thing by socking away 10 or 20% of your annual income, you should take a look at your stock portfolio.  If you are a stock picking genius and you haven’t lost 10% or more on your money, do not fear being left out of the carnage.  One of the sure ways to make all of these bad loans look less bad is hyper inflation.  When a jug of milk cost $8 and a 4 year old used Ford Fiesta runs you $12k and the average house for the average person costs $400,000…suddenly those old mortgages seem cheap…and they are.  It’s like taking your parents mortgage and fast forwarding 30 years.  I still look at my in-laws house and say, “Wow!  I can’t believe you only pay $300/month for your mortgage!  The taxes are more than that.”

WINNERS - current executives of companies taking bailout money.  You get to keep your parachute.

LOSERS - future executives of companies taking bailout money.  No golden parachute for you.

WINNERS – Big government addicts.  We just added 2 oversight boards (one of them doesn’t count as everybody on it is in government already), and put the US government in the mortgage business.  It doesn’t get any better than that.  I’m looking forward to the Milk Farmers bailout.  When that happens, you might want to switch to powdered milk since it will likely still be fresh.

LOSERS – De-regulation addicts.  You thought Sarbanes Oxley required a lot of red tape and created several completely new and useless industries.  Just wait until the smoke clears on this one.

Cheers!

Election ‘08 – The Most Audacious Country of All

By blink+ on flickr.com

By Blink+ on Flickr.com

As I write this, the US Census Bureau’s population clock says that the population of the USA is 305,276,565.  That’s a lot of people.  And do you mean to tell me that out of those 305 million people, in the most successful country planet Earth has ever known, Barak Obama and John McCain are the most qualified people to run the whole show?  Seriously?

Does the prospect of either one of these guys pinning on the presidential shield give you a warm fuzzy sense that the economy, health care, medicare, social security, unemployment, the war on terror, the state of public education, the moral decay of society in general and Congress in particular, global warming, the rise and fall of Britney Spears or any of the other myriad travesties facing America TODAY will be remotely better off?

…Really?…On what basis?…Really?…That qualifies?

There is no doubt that Mr. McCain and Mr. Obama are both well intentioned, well spoken, capable politicians, perhaps the best politicians for this current race in their respective parties.  But, come on…305 million people…the most successful country in the history of the World…all we get to pick from are a bunch of Senators who have not proved very effective in staving off the mess we’re currently in?

Did either McCain or Obama rise above their senate peers and demonstrate a level of leadership that would inspire the sort awe we hold them in right now?

Realistically, the primary criterion operating in politics right now is “who has the best chance of winning the Presidency for my party”.  It has very little to do with who we believe has the greatest qualifications for leading America through this difficult time.  Sure, that’s what we say we’re looking at when we’re deciding between Obama and McCain.  But you don’t have to look far beyond the halls of the Capitol building to find eminently more qualified leaders, though perhaps less likely to whip out a successful campaign on short notice.  So we fall back to safe bets on who is likely to get elected instead of who is likely to lead.

We would almost do better to hold an American Idol competition for the US Presidency.  You might have to sit through a lot of fruit cake performances (a few hours of C-SPAN should prep you for that), but ultimately, you might get a Carrie Underwood.

The magic of American Idol is that it tore down the barriers to becoming a star.  If you could sing with a little of the “it” factor, you were through to Hollywood.  The barriers to the presidency make the barriers in the old music business game look like a 3rd grade kickball match.

Are there no Ben Franklins, no Jeffersons, no Adamses left today?  Maybe we should give Simon Fuller a shot at coming up with some way of ferreting them out.

Today more than ever, we need a president with the creative genius of Steve Jobs, the leadership pluck of Ronald Reagan, the verbal & political cunning of Bill Clinton, the foresight of Jefferson, the honesty of Abe, and the simplicity of Washington to get us through this.

It is time that we take back America from the hands of politicians and put it back in the hands of patriot leaders.  Trouble is that these people may not be frothing at the mouth for the job…perhaps because they don’t want to play the game or maybe they are busy do other meaningful things, or perhaps some sense of actual humility prevents them from thinking that they are the most qualified out of 305 million people.

Perhaps there is some alternate reality where “Country First” means helping America find the hero it needs today instead of assuming that you’re that hero.

Jerry Garcia once said, “Somebody has to do something, and it’s just incredibly pathetic that it has to be us.”  Well, he’s sort of right.  You’d like to think there is someone else who is more qualified to find the next American president, but if there is, they aren’t jumping up to do it.  It’s up to us!

Welcome to The Daily Audacity!

Ummm…welcome.  I’m really, really glad you’re here.  I’ll try not to be a crack pot, but if the pot fits…

I really want to get on with the audacity, so I’m going to cut this short.  Let’s get it on!